Spatial Distribution and Birth Prevalence of Congenital Heart Disease in Iran: A Systematic Review and Hierarchical Bayesian Meta-analysis

Articles in Press

Document Type : Review Article

Authors

1 Department of Biostatistics, School of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran

2 School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

3 Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran

4 Department of Statistics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

5 Department of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich, Germany

Abstract

Background 
This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the overall congenital heart disease (CHD) prevalence in live births and children in Iran, along with evaluating the spatial distribution of CHD birth prevalence across various geographical regions within the country.
 
Methods 
A Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis (PROSPERO 2022: CRD42022331281) was performed to determine the pooled prevalence. A systematic search was conducted using Web of Science, ScienceDirect, PubMed, Iranian Research Institute for Information Science and Technology (IranDoc), Scientific Information Database (SID), and Magiran until October 4, 2023. Cross-sectional and cohort studies in both English and Persian languages, focusing on the age range of 0-10 years, were considered for the study population. The study quality was evaluated using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Risk of Bias tool. Heterogeneity was assessed by I2 and τ2 statistics, and publication bias by Egger’s and Begg’s tests.
 
Results 
The meta-analysis included 62 studies, revealing an overall CHD prevalence of 2.5 per 1000 births. Over time, CHD birth prevalence in Iran has consistently increased. Spatial distribution analysis, including spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation, indicated no spatial clustering (P = .46) or aggregation (P = .65) among Iran’s provinces. Geographic disparities were significant (P = .000), with the northern and eastern regions showing the highest and lowest CHD prevalence, respectively.
 
Conclusion 
The overall CHD prevalence in Iran is lower than global rates, but it continues to rise. Furthermore, there are variations in birth prevalence among different regions of Iran. Environmental, genetic, socioeconomic, and diagnostic accessibility differences are possibly involved in regional variation. The limitations like heterogeneity among studies, the potential inaccuracy of reports due to limited use of accurate diagnostic methods in some studies, and the absence of population-based models to investigate prevalence, underscore the urgent need for standardized diagnostic approaches, and the utilization of population-wide birth defect registries to accurately assess CHD prevalence in Iran.

Keywords

References

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  • Receive Date: 09 January 2023
  • Revise Date: 04 February 2024
  • Accept Date: 06 April 2024
  • First Publish Date: 07 April 2024

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