COVID-19 Control: Can Germany Learn From China?

Document Type : Perspective

Authors

1 Institute of Global Health, Medical School, Ruprecht-Karls-University, Heidelberg, Germany

2 Department of Public Health, Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China

3 Department of Epidemiology & International Public Health, School of Public Health, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak started in China in December 2019 and has developed into a pandemic. Using mandatory large-scale public health interventions including a lockdown with locally varying intensity and duration, China has been successful in controlling the epidemic at an early stage. The epicentre of the pandemic has since shifted to Europe and The Americas. In certain cities and regions, health systems became overwhelmed by high numbers of cases and deaths, whereas other regions continue to experience low incidence rates. Still, lockdowns were usually implemented country-wide, albeit with differing intensities between countries. Compared to its neighbours, Germany has managed to keep the epidemic relatively well under control, in spite of a lockdown that was only partial. In analogy to many countries at a similar stage, Germany is now under increasing pressure to further relax lockdown measures to limit economic and psychosocial costs. However, if this is done too rapidly, Germany risks facing tens of thousands more severe cases of COVID-19 and deaths in the coming months. Hence, it could again follow China’s example and relax measures according to local incidence, based on intensive testing.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  1. Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, et al. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(8):727-733. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001017
  2. Zhou F, Yu T, Du R, et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: A retrospective cohort study. Lancet. 2020;395(10229):1054-1062. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3
  3. Guan WJ, Ni ZY, Hu Y, et al. Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med. 2020; 382(18):1708-1720. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
  4. Muller O, Neuhann F, Razum O. Epidemiology and control of COVID-19. Deutsch Med Wochenschr. 2020;145(10):670-674.
  5. John Hopkins University. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE). https://bit.ly/2PpTa7F. Accessed May 2, 2020.
  6. Maier BF, Brockmann D. Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China. Science. 2020;368(6492):742-746. doi:10.1126/science.abb4557
  7. Chen S, Yang J, Yang W, et al. COVID-19 control in China during mass population movements at new year. Lancet 2020;395(10226):764-766. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30421-9
  8. World Health Organization (WHO). Report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Geneva: WHO; 2020.
  9. Health commission of Hubei province, update on the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in Hubei province. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml.  Accessed May 19, 2020.
  10. National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, update on the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak. http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/bmdt/ztzl/fkxxgzbdgrfyyq/.   Accessed May 19, 2020.
  11. Leung K, Wu JT, Liu D, Leung GM. First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: A modelling impact assessment. Lancet. 2020;395(10233):1382-1393. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30746-7
  12. Spiteri G, Fielding J, Diercke M, et al. First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(9):2000178. doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000178
  13. Rothe C, Schunk M, Sothmann P, et al. Transmission of 2019-nCoV infection from an asymptomatic contact in Germany. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(10):970-971. doi:10.1056/NEJMc2001468
  14. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control COVID-19. https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html. 2020.
  15. Stafford N. COVID-19: Why Germany’s case fatality rate seems so low. BMJ. 2020;369:m1395. doi:10.1136/bmj.m1395
  16. Remuzzi A, Remuzzi G. COVID-19 and Italy: What next? Lancet. 2020; 395(10231):1225-1228. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9
  17. Hunter DJ. COVID-19 and the stiff upper lip - the pandemic response in the United Kingdom. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(16):e31. doi:10.1056/NEJMp2005755
  18. An der Heiden MHO. Schätzung der aktuellen entwicklung der SARS-CoV-2- epidemie in Deutschland – nowcasting. Epimiol Bull. 2020;17:10-15.
  19. Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein E, et al. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science. 2020;368(6493):860-868. doi:10.1126/science.abb5793
  20. Cohen J, Kupferschmidt K. Strategies shift as coronavirus pandemic looms. Science. 2020;367(6481):962-963. doi:10.1126/science.367.6481.962
  21. Bedford J, Enria D, Giesecke J, et al. COVID-19: Towards controlling of a pandemic. Lancet. 2020;395(10229):1015-1018. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30673-5
  22. Wang CJ, Ng CY, Brook RH. Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big data analytics, new technology, and proactive testing. JAMA. 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.3151
  23. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. COVID-19: Endgames. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;20(5):511. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30298-X
  24. Lee VJ, Chiew CJ, Khong WX. Interrupting transmission of COVID-19: Lessons from containment efforts in Singapore. J Travel Med. 2020;27(3). doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa039
  25. Godlee F. Trust is crucial in lockdown—and beyond. BMJ. 2020;369:m1721. doi:10.1136/bmj.m1721
  26. Kupferschmidt K. The lockdowns worked-but what comes next? Science. 2020;368(6488):218-219. doi:10.1126/science.368.6488.218
  27. The Lancet. Sustaining containment of COVID-19 in China. Lancet. 2020;395(10232):1230. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30864-3
  28. Wilder-Smith A, Freedman DO. Isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment: Pivotal role for old-style public health measures in the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. J Travel Med. 2020;27(2):taaa020. doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa020
  29. Leung GM, Cowling BJ, Wu JT. From a sprint to a marathon in Hong Kong. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(18):e45. doi:10.1056/NEJMc2009790
  30. McMichael TM, Currie DW, Clark S, et al. Epidemiology of COVID-19 in a long-term care facility in King county, Washington. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(21):2005-2011.
  31. Institut RK. Täglicher lagebericht zu COVID-19. Robert Koch Institut; 2020.
  32. Cheng KK, Lam TH, Leung CC. Wearing face masks in the community during the COVID-19 pandemic: Altruism and solidarity. Lancet. 2020. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30918-1
  33. Klompas M, Morris CA, Sinclair J, et al. Universal masking in hospitals in the COVID-19 era. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(21):e63. doi:10.1056/NEJMp2006372
  34. Leung CC, Lam TH, Cheng KK. Mass masking in the COVID-19 epidemic: People need guidance. Lancet. 2020;395(10228):945. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30520-1
  35. Javid B, Weekes MP, Matheson NJ. COVID-19: Should the public wear face masks? BMJ. 2020;369:m1442.
  36. Greenhalgh T, Schmid MB, Czypionka T, et al. Face masks for the public during the COVID-19 crisis. BMJ. 2020;369:m1435.
  37. Feng S, Shen C, Xia N, et al. Rational use of face masks in the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet Respir Med. 2020;8(5):434-436. doi:10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30134-X
  38. Rohleder S, Qreini M, Bozorgmehr K. COVID-19 small area monitor. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/22/flattening-curve-new-z.  Accessed April 22, 2020.
  39. Sridhar D. Crunching the coronavirus curve is better than flattening it, as New Zealand is showing. https://medworm.com/784491107/crunching-the-coronavirus-curve-is-better-than-flattening-it-as-new-zealand-is-showing-devi-sridh/.   Accessed May 19, 2020.
  40. Wang Y, Zhang D, Du G, et al. Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. Lancet. 2020;395(10236):1569-1578.
  41. Mahase E. COVID-19: What do we know so far about a vaccine? BMJ. 2020;369:m1679.
International Journal of Health Policy and Management
Volume 9, Issue 10
October 2020
Pages 432-435

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 09 May 2020
  • Revise Date: 22 May 2020
  • Accept Date: 23 May 2020
  • First Publish Date: 01 October 2020

Share

How to cite

Statistics